Fantasy Football By The Numbers

Lets break this fantasy football thing of ours down like Billy Beane playing money ball.....Winning is is simple. Score more points than your opponent and you win.

Therefore its fair to say .... points = wins.

More points = even more wins.

More wins keep you out of the toilet bowl.

So by utilizing the transitive property ..... Points = Playoffs.....ceteris paribus of course

Because our league is so well documented and our records so pristinely maintained (self pat on the back me) I was able to analyze 9 years of data and have determined the following:

  • On average it takes 1259.22 points to make the playoffs
  • That equals 96.87 points per game
  • Adjusted for a 14 game season it will take 1357 points on average to make the playoffs

So....put together a team that can score 97 points a game and you should just squeak into the playoffs.

***DISCLAIMER*** These are calculations to "just not lose".....winning the Rhoda (which ive done twice) takes a little more effort week to week. 

Coming full circle, like Billy building a team to get on base because bases equal runs and runs equal wins, players are valued based on the amount of points that they will reliably bring you week to week.

I understand that Jackson may only be evaluating the difference between Rodgers and Hurts but give me a guy who is reliably a top 10 fantasy point scorer (#2 Last Year) ACROSS ALL POSITIONS over a guy who the league will figure out in a week or two and we will see if he can adapt or if he will go the way of the RG3. Jackson defiantly could have gotten more than a mid level at best running back who in the last year alone has dealt with:

  • Sprained Ankle
  • Hamstring
  • Another Ankle
  • Hip Injuries
  • Illness (tummy trouble)

Long and short of it is Jackson left plenty on the table and could have gotten at least a couple pieces in exchange for Rodgers....Who WILL outscore Hurts by more than the 1 point difference in "app projections" ..... I'm willing to sidebet this with you Jackson.

I feel like I've made my point.